SpaceX rival United Launch Alliance could be completely wiped out if Congress decides that its Russian-built RD-180 rocket engines used with its Atlas V rockets, violate U.S. sanctions against Russia. ULA, a cooperative between Boeing and Lockheed, has been yo-yoing back and forth on this issue in recent months. The controversy first arose when SpaceX chief Elon Musk filed a lawsuit over ULA using the rockets for contracts, contracts that SpaceX has been scooping up during the uncertainty.
After Musk convinced a court that the sanctions the U.S. put into place due to Russia's actions in Ukraine forbade ULA from buying or using the rockets, there's been a heated debate. ULA had tried to get a waiver from the law banning using Russian engines at least for for military launches, but the Department of Defense decided against it.
There looked like there might be a reprieve for ULA when an exemption for rockets was built into the new budget Congress passed in December, but it was controversial, especially with Sen. John McCain (R-Az.), who made a point to protest it on the Senate floor. Now, his Senate Armed Services Committee will decide if, based on an Air Force report, a recent reorganization of Russia's space program mean that the engines don't violate the sanctions after all. The decision will be made next week at a hearing about the report. If ULA is violating the sanctions though, then the military will have to keep scrambling to get enough rockets, and rely exclusively on SpaceX to do so until ULA or another company can offer any kind of competition.
National security launches are worth around $70 billion over the next 15 years according to a report by the Government Accountability Office though, so SpaceX likely won't have the skies to itself for long, as competitors will be eager to jump into the market.
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